Bear Mountain Bull

Doug Noland on Greenspan and central banking:

The historical fact of the matter is that the Greenspan Fed mistakenly accommodated both the Bubble in U.S. mortgage Credit and the resulting unprecedented Current Account Deficits. Somehow, Mr. Greenspan, Dr. Bernanke and others will still argue that the massive outflow of dollar liquidity to the world – that was largely monetized by foreign central banks – was not the primary catalyst for the destabilizing decline in global market yields. And perhaps they would argue that Federal Reserve policy – including rapid rate cuts and telegraphed baby-step increases and talk of “helicopter money” and “unconventional measures” – didn’t entice speculative leveraging throughout the market for GSE and “private-label” MBS. And I doubt Greenspan will concede that his position as the leading proponent for derivatives, hedge funds and contemporary Wall Street finance, more generally, was a major factor promoting their fateful runaway expansion. And, clearly, Greenspan and Bernanke refuse to acknowledge that they looked the other way as the GSEs ran completely out of control.

It’s just hard for me these days to stomach the same flawed dogma that the financial crisis was caused by some nefarious “global saving glut.” It was caused by a Credit Bubble whose epicenter was in Washington and New York. The crisis was all about the consequences from a historic government-induced mispricing and inflation of Credit. At its core, the crisis manifested from a massive inflation of financial obligations by the Credit system commanding the world’s reserve currency. There is plenty of blame to go around, but the ongoing saga will surely be viewed as a case of monumental central banking mismanagement.

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I wish we could implement a gold standard. Global Credit systems and economies are in dire need of a mechanism that would work to promote at least a semblance of stability. Regrettably, at this stage of massive global debt and synchronized global inflationism, a gold-based monetary regime is implausible. As such, I am a proponent of sound central banking – the kind that doesn’t exist today. It’s our last resort. And it’s in this vein that I am so frustrated with Mr. Greenspan. He just refuses to address the dangerous flaws of contemporary central banking.

So we learn so little from the past and set course for another historic Bubble – The Global Government Finance Bubble. Flawed central banking doctrine leads to mistake after bigger mistake. The consequences of previous government market interventions ensure only more intrusive interference. And Alan Greenspan, the seeming free-market ideologue, works to ensure he goes down in history as the father of modern inflationism.

Saw this Mike Flynn quote on Instapundit:

The Democrats and the White House are lost in a legislative “fog of war” right now. They are focused on twisting enough arms, offering jobs and negotiating specific “deals” (bribes) to get them to 216 votes. Their attention and energy is focused exclusively on a final vote in the House tonight. No one is looking even one minute beyond that horizon. They are like a general who pours all his reserves into taking a symbolic bridge, never realizing that his lines have already collapsed and his flanks have been turned. They may take the bridge and get to 216 votes. (I’ve learned to never bet against Congressional leadership and an Administration united for a single legislative victory. ) But, they have already lost the war. They have deluded themselves that if they can…just…get…this…bill…passed, the public’s anger and attention will subside, they can put health care ‘behind them’ and they can focus on other ‘popular’ measures that will shore up their election prospects in November.

What they don’t realize is that today’s vote isn’t the end, but just a new beginning in the debate over health care. Buckle up, because if they manage to cobble together enough votes to pass the Senate Health Bill today, we’re set for weeks and perhaps months of a constitutional and political crisis the likes of which we haven’t seen in our lifetimes. . . . A representative democracy cannot long endure a political class that is so out of touch with the populace. In some respects, what happens tonight is almost beside the point. The politics are set. Some Democrats are deluding themselves that they can put this behind them and somehow survive in November. They are most assuredly wrong.

I think this is true. And when Flynn says that this is “just a new beginning in the debate over health care”, I think it’s even more than that — I think it’s a whole new chapter in the debate over what the government’s role in our lives is and should be.

It’s that time again. This time around, topics include Dow Theory, the S&P’s ‘footing’, the reversing candle, TIPs and North American currencies.

Have at it.

Notes on the latest moves in the industry groups:

• The group charts look a little more encouraging than the SPDR charts yesterday, with a number of them reaching new high levels. The problem is, a lot of them look like rocket shots (for example, banks, biotech, defense, REITs, software and internet, along with insurance, networking, retail, hospitals and transportation) so approach with the necessary caution.
• Cruise through all of the group charts here: set #1 — set #2 — set #3 — set #4.
• For a more detailed breakdown of group movement over various time periods, try the Industry Group Tracker at WSJ Online, the industry group tools at Finviz.com, or the list of Morningstar industry groups at FreeStockCharts.com.

Megan McArdle on health care:

…there is one thing of which I am nearly perfectly certain: If we pass this thing, no American politician, left or right, is going to cut any of these programs, or raise the broad-based taxes necessary to pay for them, without any compensating goodies to offer the public . . . until the crisis is almost upon us. I can think of no situation, other than impending crisis, in which such a thing has been done–and usually, as with Social Security, they have done just little enough to kick the problem down the road. The idea that you pass a program of dubious sustainability because you can always make it sustainable later, seems borderline insane. I can’t think of a single major entitlement that has become more sustainable over time. Why is this one supposed to be different?

It won’t be. We’ve got so many ‘pay me laters’ that we can’t afford to actually pay for any of them. And that’s why our nation is already bankrupted, and getting even worse by the day.

Not much change. Even though the Dow joined the other indices in hitting new highs, we still find only four of the Sector SPDRs in new high ground: Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), and the consumer sectors (XLP, XLY). Note that energy stocks (XLE) have gained no ground since October.

The latest numbers:

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

A triple play to start us off:

Advanta Bank Corp., Draper, UT
Century Security Bank, Duluth, GA
American National Bank, Parma, OH

Follow that up with a home run:

State Bank of Aurora, Aurora, MN
First Lowndes Bank, Fort Deposit, AL
Bank of Hiawassee, Hiawassee, GA
Appalachian Community Bank, Ellijay, GA

Internals were negative, and volume was much higher due to expiration. Advances/declines were 3 to 7 on the NYSE and 2 to 3 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume 1 to 3 on the NYSE and 4 to 15 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 463/11 on the NYSE and 278/20 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — HMOs (+2.19%), Defense (+0.64%), Insurance (+0.51%), Health Care (+0.02%), Biotechs (+0.00%), Utilities (-0.02%), Health Care Products (-0.08%), Retailers (-0.27%)
Laggards — Comp. Hardware (-3.37%), Airlines (-3.10%), Oil Services (-2.74%), Paper (-2.67%), Homebuilders (-1.90%), Semis (-1.65%), Gold/Silver (-1.55%), Metals (-1.54%)

Treasury Yields — 6-Month: .24%,  2-Year: .99%,  5-Year: 2.46%,  10-Year: 3.69%,  30-Year: 4.58%

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $80.68/barrel,  Gasoline: $2.2569/gallon,  Natural Gas: $4.156/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 80.741

Precious Metals — Gold: $1106.00/ounce,  Silver: $16.97/ounce,  Platinum: $1606.00/ounce

BMB Note:  
The indices came well up off their lows in the last half-hour. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of a much-needed pullback.

Brett Steenbarger:

“Everyone has a plan ’til they get punched in the mouth.”

That’s one of the central challenges of trading. We set out with plans, then we get punched in the mouth with adverse movement.

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One way to think of risk management is as a framework that allows you to be aggressive enough to occasionally get hit in the mouth, but not so wild that you’ll get knocked out. Learning how to take a punch is key to boxing success, and it’s also an important trading skill.

…with breadth the “epitome of overbought”. Here’s Larry McMillan (click here for column with charts):

$SPX has broken out to new highs, as have all the other indices. The support is now at 1150 (the old highs). From a merely chart perspective, $SPX measures to a rise to 1210 or further.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on intermediate-term buy signals, and they are not overbought. This makes them the only indicator that isn’t overbought.

Market breadth, on the other hand, is the epitome of “overbought.” This much of an overbought condition always results in a rather nasty, if only short-lived decline. It could be as much as 5% in just a couple of days.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have made new lows. You can see from the chart in Figure 4 that $VIX gapped down, much as it did in January, near that market top. The downtrend in $VIX is intermediate-term bullish, but the drop below has been too fast recently. In short, $VIX is also reflecting the overbought condition.

After expiration, the possibility increases for a sharp decline in the week after expiration. This decline is likely to be short- lived, but at least it might return the market to a more normal state, in which there are both up days and down days.

TaxProf:

…the House Health Care bill unveiled today includes a 3.8% Medicare tax on investment income (interest, dividends, capital gains, annuities, rents) earned by those with incomes in excess of $200,000 (single) and $250,000 (joint).

Try not to make too much.

Link from Instapundit.

Who gets hit the hardest by the new proposals?

The hardest hit won’t be those earning more than $250,000 a year–the group that he says needs to “pay their fair share.” Rather, it’s families whose combined annual income is around $100,000 who could be crushed under this plan.

These folks will be too “rich” to qualify for ObamaCare’s subsidies, but probably too poor to easily afford the pricey insurance that the president’s plan forces them to buy.

Many of these $100K families will be obliged to buy a policy costing an average of $14,700 for the mid-level, “silver” health plan, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates. After income taxes, they’ll be spending almost a quarter of their net income for health insurance.

Link from The Corner.

Though the Dow moved up 45 points to new highs, internals were negative on light volume. Advances/declines were 8 to 11 on both exchanges, with up/down volume 4 to 7 on the NYSE and 9 to 10 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 428/5 on the NYSE and 223/18 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — HMOs (+3.07%), Hospitals (+2.02%), Health Care (+0.64%), Drugs (+0.64%), Transport (+0.57%), Health Care Products (+0.53%), Comp. Hardware (+0.37%), Software (+0.31%)
Laggards — Oil Services (-2.76%), Metals (-2.32%), Natural Gas (-2.13%), Paper (-2.08%), Steel (-1.71%), Commodities (-1.48%), Banks (-1.22%), Network (-1.15%)

Treasury Yields — 6-Month: .23%,  2-Year: .96%,  5-Year: 2.41%,  10-Year: 3.67%,  30-Year: 4.58%

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $82.04/barrel,  Gasoline: $2.301/gallon,  Natural Gas: $4.085/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 80.240

Precious Metals — Gold: $1126.80/ounce,  Silver: $17.41/ounce,  Platinum: $1627.00/ounce

BMB Note:   More of the same, expiration tomorrow.

As asset prices inflate, the pressure at the pump returns — note gasoline futures at $2.30/gallon.

Another way of looking at the charts.

Link from Global Perspectives.

For Thursday — I’ve got nothing to talk about.

A good column on volume today from Michael Kahn — go check it out, and then read the ‘addendum’ on his blog:

I must caution investors that volume does indeed still matter. And when volume does start to increase, it might be a sign of a turn in the market and not the signal that it is time to buy.

The bible of technical analysis, Edwards and Magee’s Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, says this, “Volume is of the utmost importance in all technical phenomena.” Although price action is the most critical of factors in charting, volume tells us the conviction of the marketplace.

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But is a lack of conviction really a bad thing? Should it matter how the market goes up if we are watching our portfolios grow?

The lack of participation by many different types of investors means that stocks are in the hands of fewer owners. There is no buffer against adverse news, and it would not take much to get that group crowding the exit doors.

A buffer, in the form of a relative balance of buyers and sellers with different time frames and risk tolerances, slows down reactions. In a well-diversified marketplace, a small selling event does not turn into a stampede.

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Look upon volume as a risk measure and not a trend measure. The more volume, the more widespread the bullish mood and the more orderly the market will be, both as it rises and as it turns. Low volume does not prevent rallies. It does make them riskier.

“Who’s the REAL Dumb Money?”

It’s a legitimate question:

The mainstream media seems stunned by the fact that average investors don’t want to participate in the stock market anymore. Honestly, there’s nothing stunning about it. Consider that in the last ten-years, we’ve seen:

1. Two of the biggest asset bubbles of all time, both of which resulted in major crashes
2. None of the so called regulators even SAW the bubbles or crashes coming
3. None of the key issues that caused the Financial Crisis in 2008 have been addressed, instead…
4. The Government’s idea of fixing all of this is to ask taxpayers to pick up the tab for every mistake Wall Street has made.
5. Wall Street is back to handing out 2007 level bonuses while everyone else in the US is getting SCREWED

Gee… I wonder why someone wouldn’t want to buy stocks right now? You’d think that after having been completely screwed twice in ten years (wiping out 25-50% of their wealth/savings in the process) individual investors would be just tickled pink at the prospect of handing off MORE of their money to the market.

Link from Global Perspectives.

Internals were positive, with volume near yesterday’s levels. Advances/declines were 7 to 3 on the NYSE and 3 to 2 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume 2 to 1 on the NYSE and 3 to 2 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 627/2 on the NYSE and 293/11 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — Paper (+5.66%), Hospitals (+1.82%), Banks (+1.67%), Commodities (+1.67%), REITs (+1.36%), Oil (+1.27%), Semis (+1.16%), Telecoms (+1.03%)
Laggards — Steel (-1.21%), Airlines (-1.14%), Disk Drives (-0.53%), Biotechs (-0.33%), Drugs (-0.09%), Gold/Silver (-0.09%), Transport (-0.07%), Homebuilders (-0.06%)

Treasury Yields — 6-Month: .23%,  2-Year: .92%,  5-Year: 2.36%,  10-Year: 3.63%,  30-Year: 4.56%

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $82.68/barrel,  Gasoline: $2.3064/gallon,  Natural Gas: $4.287/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 79.718

Precious Metals — Gold: $1120.00/ounce,  Silver: $17.47/ounce,  Platinum: $1627.00/ounce

BMB Note:  
The market meltup was in full force this morning, but cooled off a bit in the afternoon. If you’re looking to jump on the rocket ship, be careful about how and when you do it — the longer it goes without a pullback/correction, the higher the risk is of that pullback/correction occurring.

That’s certainly one possible outcome — but don’t expect it to last:

The Fed has literally flooded the world with liquidity (printed money), and that liquidity is pouring into the markets on every pullback. Apparently any test of the lows is out of the question in this hyper-liquid environment.

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I think we probably have the emotional conditions in place for a runaway move as well. Retail investors are still gun shy of this rally. If this does develop into a runaway move, we’ll have a steady stream of retail money flooding back into the market as Joe Sixpack becomes convinced of the sustainability of the rally and fearful of missing the chance to recover his retirement.

Geez, what a recipe for catastrophe the Fed has created. When this very same liquidity unleashes the next crisis (most likely in the currency markets), it will release the return of the secular bear. Sad to say, investors’ 401Ks are going to get decimated again.

If all markets do enter a final runaway move, the S&P could rocket up to the 1300-1400 level in a matter of months. The euphoria from drinking that kind of Kool-Aid will intoxicate most investors and they won’t notice the bear when he returns.

And return he will. It simply isn’t possible to create a sustainable long-term bull market on a foundation of money-printing. We already tried that approach last decade and the end result was one heck of a party followed by the second-worst bear market in history.

We now have structural problems in the financial markets that are going to be with us for years, if not decades.

The magnitude of liquidity spewing forth from the Fed dwarfs what Greenspan produced from 2000-2007.

Apparently the powers that be can’t figure out that it’s not the size of the dose that’s the problem; it’s that we’re using the wrong medicine.

2-day RSI maxed at 100. 5-day above 97.

While US indices probe new ‘recovery highs’, probably very few have noticed (or cared) that, on the other side of the world, the Shanghai Composite is gearing up for a bearish cross of the 50-day MA below the 200-day, and hasn’t seen a new high since last July. Since the $SSEC led all markets up the last time around, hitting its lows in Nov. ‘08 (vs. Mar ‘09 for most others), this might be worth keeping an eye on.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Internals were positive, with volume a bit better than yesterday. Advances/declines were 14 to 5 on the NYSE and 5 to 3 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume 5 to 1 on the NYSE and 2 to 1 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 414/2 on the NYSE and 207/13 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — Metals (+2.79%), Steel (+2.75%), Paper (+2.72%), Semis (+2.69%), Gold/Silver (+2.66%), REITs (+2.37%), Hospitals (+1.82%), Oil Services (+1.69%)
Laggards — Biotechs (-1.37%), Airlines (-0.23%), Health Care Products (+0.07%), Software (+0.16%), Health Care (+0.22%), Comp. Hardware (+0.25%), Defense (+0.36%), Drugs (+0.39%)

Treasury Yields — 6-Month: .22%,  2-Year: .91%,  5-Year: 2.35%,  10-Year: 3.65%,  30-Year: 4.59%

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $81.81/barrel,  Gasoline: $2.2786/gallon,  Natural Gas: $4.348/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 79.639

Precious Metals — Gold: $1127.40/ounce,  Silver: $17.43/ounce,  Platinum: $1631.00/ounce

BMB Note:  
What’s there to say? The song remains the same, pretty much day after day: a technically overbought market that continues to grind higher on light volume, leaving little in the way of pullbacks/corrections for lower risk entries.

Fed day done, and it’s on to expiration Friday.

…is, of course, no action.

Here’s their statement for those that are into parsing their words.

Zero Hedge:

In case you were wondering what just sent the market and commodities higher, and killed the dollar, look no further: S&P just released a note confirming Greece at BBB+, and removing the country from CreditWatch negative, presumably a major euro positive, a major dollar negative, and today’s nitrous boost to stocks… Here is the forest for the trees: the market is again dependent on the moronic filth spewed forth by rating agencies. As to what turbo austerity will do to Greek GDP, ah, who cares. S&P will cross that bridge when Greek GDP plummets 10%.

Fantasyland is open and thriving.

Barry quotes himself from an article in The Globe and Mail:

Mr. Ritholtz is one of several commentators who believe this rally has merely been a temporary cyclical swing in the midst of a longer-term bear market – one that began roughly a decade ago and is far from over. These long-term, or “secular,” market trends tend to last 15 to 20 years.

“This does not have the characteristics of a secular bull market,” Mr. Ritholtz says. Not only would it be starting ahead of schedule, he argues, but even at the market lows of a year ago the stock valuations were never as low as they typically get at turning points in secular market trends.

And Barry isn’t a perma-bear.

Though the Dow and S&P both a light green, internals were negative on (do I even need to say it?) light volume. Advances/declines were 8 to 11 on both exchanges, with up/down volume 2 to 3 on the NYSE and 9 to 10 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 262/5 on the NYSE and 157/6 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — Health Care Products (+1.34%), Biotechs (+0.91%), Hospitals (+0.83%), Utilities (+0.59%), Health Care (+0.50%), Drugs (+0.44%), Retailers (+0.38%), Software (+0.27%)
Laggards — Paper (-1.63%), Metals (-1.57%), Semis (-1.39%), Natural Gas (-1.24%), Disk Drives (-1.19%), Oil Services (-1.16%), Steel (-0.92%), Commodities (-0.79%)

Treasury Yields — 6-Month: .23%,  2-Year: .94%,  5-Year: 2.41%,  10-Year: 3.70%,  30-Year: 4.63%

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $79.88/barrel,  Gasoline: $2.224/gallon,  Natural Gas: $4.409/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 80.243

Precious Metals — Gold: $1107.70/ounce,  Silver: $17.09/ounce,  Platinum: $1623.00/ounce

BMB Note:  
More nothing-ness on light volume. We’re gettin’ nowhere here.

‘Fed day’ tomorrow…