On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

10/12/2004

Market Wrap

Interesting day? Maybe only mildly, in that the late day selloff in oil saved the market from its earlier losses, leaving the major indices basically unchanged on relatively light volume.

Another interesting fact is that the stocks that have been leading the market — gold, commodities, oil & oil services — all continued to pull back today, along with the semiconductors. REITs and retailers got a bit of a boost today, and a decent earnings report from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) helped prop up the Dow.

Earnings reports coming from Intel and Yahoo after the bell today. First reports on the Intel numbers were that earnings came in a penny below estimates.

Posted: 3:32 pm

BMB on Employee Stock Options

A BMB Reader writes:

Have you seen any good articles or recommendations on exercising (employee) stock options? Many advisors recommend leaving the options as long as you can in the account and to cash them before expiration. Others say you can cash the options to pay off your home.

BMB did a quick web search and came across a web site that seems to have a great deal of information on the subject of options and taxes. For most employees, they’ll need to check out the information on non-qualified stock options. He also encourages the reader to do as much research as they can about the subject before making any decisions.

As for our recommendations, there is one very simple one: Maximize your profits.

How does one maximize profits from the exercise of employee stock options? In BMB’s mind, there are two major factors that will determine your profit: stock price and taxes.

  • Stock price — track your company’s stock price, and understand where it is from a historical perspective. Take a look at the longer term charts (you can view long-term charts at sites like Bigcharts.com). See if the stock price is trending higher or lower - what has it been doing over the past few years - has it moved at all? What are the prospects for the future for the company and for the industry it’s in (and don’t necessarily believe what the company is telling you…)? If the stock is doing well, by all means, don’t rush to exercise your options. But if the stock has been lagging, you might want to think about taking some of your options off the table the next time it rallies. There is no reason to hang on to options until expiration if they’re only going to decrease in value.
  • Taxes — pay attention on this one, for this is something you may not know: Your profit from the exercise of employee stock options (in most cases) will be taxed as ordinary income, NOT as a capital gain. In the year of your exercise, the profit you make on the exercise of your stock options will be added to your regular income for the year, which may very well push you into a higher tax bracket (which effectively decreases your profit on the options). This is true if you have non-qualified stock options (most common) as opposed to incentive stock options. Know what type of options you have, so you can understand the tax consequences. You may even consider exercising your options over time instead of all at once to minimize the tax burden. It all depends on your individual circumstances.

Know the numbers, know the facts, and know your individual situation.

As for what to do with the money after you exercise, BMB certainly has no problem with the idea of putting the money toward payment on your house (making sure the mortgage company credits you with payment on principal). There really isn’t a surer way of saving 5-10% on your money than by paying off mortgage debt. And for the future, consider how much less income you could get by on if you didn’t have a mortgage and/or auto loan payments. Certainly something to think about, especially if retirement isn’t too far off.

Posted: 12:04 pm

What Does the Bond Market Know?

BMB continues to wonder what the bond market is trying to tell us. U.S. 10-year treasuries experienced quite a selloff early in the year, driving yields from a March low of 3.65% to a May peak of 4.9%. But since that time, bonds have rallied back, pushing the 10-year yield back down below 4% in September before a rebound back up to near 4.25% last week. Yesterday, the rally in prices resumed, pushing yields back down to around 4.1% today.

This rally in bond prices (fall in yields) has taken place during a time when the Fed is trying its best to push interest rates higher, continuing to raise short-term rates higher by 0.25% at every FOMC meeting. Amidst this pressure, the market refuses to take longer-term rates higher. Why?

It would seem to BMB that the bond market has a somewhat dimmer view of the outlook for the economy than the Fed would like to present. Is the Fed’s view, that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates, just flat out wrong? Or does the Fed really agree with the bond market’s view, and is just trying to buy themselves some wiggle room, to be able to lower short-term rates again if the economy runs into trouble?

Something just isn’t right with this picture.

Posted: 10:40 am

Another Sentiment Take

BMB has thought that market sentiment has been running a little too bullish for a while now…maybe I was a little early. Check this out from RealMoney.com.

Look for a lower opening today - futures are down, oil hits $54, not-so-great news from LG Philips in the semi area and Japan’s Nikkei index down about 1.5% overnight.

Posted: 8:30 am