On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

11/13/2004

Sector Scan

XLU chart Utilities are delivering the most consistent performance.
XLI chart After a 4-month pause, Industrials have taken off again.
XLY chart Consumer Discretionay stocks have broken through all of their YTD peaks.
XLB chart Basic Materials stocks have finally broken out of their trading range.
XLE chart Many have talked of the end of the line for energy stocks, yet the XLE appears to be consolidating here and could easily move higher.

 

Here are the performance numbers for all of the Sector SPDRs, ranked by their 8-week returns:

 

Sector Symbol 8 Week % Chg. 4 Week % Chg. 1 Week % Chg.
Utilities XLU +10.6 +8.8 +3.3
Basic Materials XLB +10.2 +8.4 +2.9
Technology XLK +9.6 +8.3 +1.9
Consumer Discretionary XLY +8.9 +8.9 +1.7
Industrials XLI +6.9 +8.6 +2.5
Energy XLE +5.8 +2.1 +0.5
Consumer Staples XLP +4.0 +6.8 +1.0
Financials XLF +2.1 +6.3 +1.4
Health Care XLV -3.4 +4.1 +0.4
Posted: 1:43 pm

Weekend Update

INDU chart The Dow has bounced hard off its yearly lows to move above its September and June highs in only three weeks. It could encounter a little resistance here around the 10600 level.
SPX chart The S&P has blown past all of its yearly highs, and has reached levels not seen in more than 3 years.
COMPQ chart The Nasdaq has regained nearly all of its losses since February over the past three months.
MID chart The rally has been broad-based. The mid-caps have played along…
SML chart …as have the small-caps.
USD chart Some concerns are still out there, however. The US Dollar continues to fall to new lows against other major currencies.
GOLD chart Gold prices have risen to 16-year highs in response to the weakening dollar.
WTIC chart The price of crude oil has been shrugged off amidst the stock market rally. Yes, the price has fallen from its peaks, but a drop below the low 40s seems unlikely in the near term. With the peak of the winter heating season fast approaching, it is yet unknown what effect higher oil prices will have on the US economy.

BMB has noted in the recent past that the indices (and many stocks) are rather extended/overbought at their current levels — you can see in the charts how far the indices have moved above their respective 50-day moving averages. Even if you feel you’ve missed out on the ‘big rally’, it would be prudent to wait for the markets to calm down and pull back a little before committing much more money to them, thus reducing your risk/reward ratio.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Posted: 11:21 am