On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

2/16/2005

XOOOOOM!

XOM chart Since its breakout a couple of weeks ago, Exxon Mobil has helped lead an extremely strong energy group to new highs with the most powerful move it has made in years. This is a rather rare occurrence for the stock of a company the size of XOM, which is now challenging General Electric for the largest market cap in the world. As I’ve said before, I wouldn’t be chasing the energy stocks at these levels - if you own them, good for you. If you don’t, you’d best wait for a lower risk entry point.

 

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Posted: 6:27 pm

Market Wrap

The markets worked their way back from negative territory late in the day to finish near the unchanged mark today. The Dow lost 2 points to 10835, the S&P 500 gained less than a point to finish at 1210, and the Nasdaq lost less than 2 points (-0.1%) to 2087. The Russell 2000 fared the best by gaining 4 points (+0.2%) to 639, and the bond market reacted somewhat negatively to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony before Congress, pushing yields higher with the 10-year ending up at 4.16%.

Internals were mixed today on light volume. Advance/declines were pretty much flat on both exchanges, and up/down volume flat on the NYSE but 4 to 5 on the Nasdaq. There were 395 new highs to 44 new lows.

Commodity and energy related stocks were the big winners today, with gains coming in steel stocks (+5.0%), natural gas (+3.1%), oil services (+2.6%), oil stocks (+2.1%) and commodities (+2.0%). Home builders also got a boost from the morning’s housing starts report, with the housing index rising 1.5%. The gains were not across the board by any means, but the losing groups didn’t get hit too hard with the worst being airlines (-1.2%) and semiconductors (-0.8%).

Crude oil jumped by more than a dollar today, rising to $48.33/barrel - these higher oil prices have got to hurt sooner or later. The US dollar index rose slightly today (+0.1%), and gold prices hung around the $425/ounce mark.

The market isn’t giving much of a hint as to where it wants to go from here - though some of the indices are tickling new highs, the breadth and conviction doesn’t seem to be there to really make a run from here. This could be a pause before that run, or the calm before a downward storm. We’ll be watching to see when volume picks up - note which direction the market is pointed when volume starts to increase. That should be a signal as to what to expect in the near-term.

Posted: 3:22 pm

Cash For Health Care

Wow, what a concept. Like no one has ever thought of actually paying for their health care costs out of their pocket before.

Which brings BMB to one of his pet peeves, and that is the whole idea of health insurance.

< Rant On >

First off, the idea that health care is “free” if you have health insurance is absurd. Take a look at your pay stubs and see how much is taken out each time to pay the premiums on your health insurance coverage. You’re paying for it. Now more than ever. And as the costs go up, you’re complaining about it. But you’re partly to blame.

And here’s where BMB sticks his neck out when it comes to the rising costs of health care:

I maintain that health insurance, while it was intended to be part of the ’solution’, is a large part of the problem.

Here’s why:

The widespread availability and use of health insurance discourages competition in the health care industry. It discourages the consumer from “shopping around” for better prices on any of their health care needs, be it prescription drugs, office visits, tests, etc. It also prevents and/or discourages the consumer from even asking what a particular test or procedure might cost, or whether it’s even necessary. We just let the doctors do “what they think needs to be done” without asking any questions or wondering how much it’s going to cost - after all, “insurance is paying for it.”

Baloney - YOU are paying for it every time you make that payment on your health insurance premium (Where do you think the insurance company gets their money? Bingo - from you and your employer.). And you never even bother to find out what any of your actual health care costs are, until after the bill arrives. And then, the insurance company pays it - or at least, most of it. Would you do that when shopping for a car, or for your groceries? Would you walk into Wal-Mart and start grabbing stuff off the shelves without knowing what they cost? Of course you wouldn’t - but that’s what you do when you go to the doctor. Do you see a nice lighted board above the reception desk with the prices listed on it?? NO. Why?? Because they don’t even really have a predetermined price list — it depends on who will be paying the bill.

What’s the first question they ask at the doctor’s office when you call for an appointment? Yes, you know: “What insurance do you have?” Why do they ask? Because, 1) they want to know they will be paid - can’t blame them for that, but 2) The insurance you have not only determines how much they’ll charge for your visit, but in many cases, also determines what they will do!! If your insurance company doesn’t cover a certain procedure, the doctor won’t do that. And vice versa, the doctor may perform a certain procedure just because your insurance company does cover it! That is a broken system, and it needs fixing. And “health care coverage for everyone” is NOT the right answer.

We need a system that leans back toward paying cash for office visits and simple procedures, and gets away from hiding the real costs from the consumer, thereby increasing competition in the industry and driving prices down.

I’m not saying we shouldn’t have some sort of catastrophic coverage, but I think we should move toward a health care model that is similar to our auto insurance model. We carry auto insurance for the big things like theft and accidents, but our insurance does not cover regular maintenance and simple procedures like oil changes. And that forces shops to actually advertise their pricing and tell you what an oil change or minor repair will cost you before you agree to have it done. Even for major repairs, they’ll give you a quote before they do the work. That’s the way our health care system used to work — and we need to get moving back in that direction to get things back in order.

< Rant Off >

Think about it.

Posted: 11:23 am

Futures Dip on Iran Explosion

Index futures have taken a big dive on reports of a missile firing/explosion in Iran.

Update: Reports are now saying that a fuel tank may have fallen from a plane. How does that happen?

Posted: 7:47 am

Housing Starts Up

Low interest rates continue to feed the frenzy in new home building. If rates stay low for long enough, every man, woman, child and dog in America will own their own home have a mortgage to make payments on.

For their sake, I hope they’re smart enough to lock in these low rates and not get sucked in to the adjustable rate game when rates really have nowhere to go but up.

Posted: 7:42 am