On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

8/5/2005

Market Wrap

Another ugly day on the street, and the major indices don’t do a very good job of showing just how ugly it was. Here are the headline numbers: Dow Industrials down 52 points (-0.5%) to 10558, S&P 500 down 9 points (-0.8%) to 1226 and the Nasdaq down 13 points (-0.6%) to 2178. But the Russell 2000 fell much farther for the second day in a row, down 9 points (-1.4%) as the broader market gives up more ground. The Dow Transports dropped another 0.9% and the Utilities tumbled 1.7% as the bond market pushed interest rates up yet again, the 5-year yield reaching 4.23% and the 10-year 4.39%.

The market internals were gross, the only good news being that volume lightened up a tad from yesterday. Advances/declines were worse than 1/3 on the NYSE and worse than 1/2 on the Nasdaq. Up/down volume wasn’t any better, at slightly better than 1/4 on the NYSE and worse than 1/2 on the Nasdaq. New highs have now pulled in considerably, with the highs/lows figures coming in at 79/35 on the NYSE and 66/31 on the Nasdaq.

The selling was across the board, with no sectors in the green. Getting the worst of it were the REITs (-3.4%), housing stocks (-3.1%), utilities (-1.8%), HMOs (-1.6%), airlines (-1.5%), steel stocks (-1.5%), disk drives (-1.4%), broker/dealers (-1.2%), retailers (-1.1%), banks (-1.1%), insurers (-1.1%), natural gas stocks (-1.0%) and oil services (-1.0%).

Crude oil prices closed well above the $62 mark at $62.31. The dollar got back 0.3% against other major currencies, pushing the dollar index up to 88.06, and the price of gold dropped to just below $437.

Ok, listen up. Here’s the deal: On a day when CNBC can talk about nothing but the Baidu.com IPO closing up 368%, you need to ignore the hype and pay close attention to what’s really going on in the market. The market has weakened considerably over the past few days, and at best looks like it has entered a pullback phase. For traders, caution is advised: I’d be taking profits and tightening stops. For investors, you should be keeping an eye on your longer term trends, and deciding what you plan to do if this turns into anything more than a pullback. Maybe you want to move into more cash with stocks struggling and rates moving up, that’s up to you. Just don’t ignore the fact that this rally has lost its steam, at least in the short term.

Here’s a quote from Larry McMillan’s Option Strategist Weekly Updater (this weekly email update is free, sign up here): keep in mind, this was written before today’s market decline:

The first cracks in the bullish dam are beginning to show. As a result, the correction that we’ve spoken about for some time is upon us. Whether it proves to be a sharp, but short-lived correction (such as the 30-point $SPX correction in June) or something more permanent, remains to be seen. But, for now, caution is warranted for bullish investors, while aggressive investors can take bearish positions understanding that they may have to exit quickly.

Posted: 3:25 pm

And You Thought It Was Over

The internet craze, that is. Nope, it started again with Google, and has expanded to China. Today’s IPO of Chinese search engine Baidu.com: priced at $27, opened at $66, currently trading at $124.

Whatever. And Cramer hasn’t even touted it yet.

Posted: 2:03 pm

Early Take

Major indices are slightly negative out of the gate, and with bonds lower/yields higher, the supposedly interest rate sensitive groups are getting hit today: REITs -2.7%, housing stocks -2.3%, utilities -1.2%. No groups making good moves higher.

Oil pushing up near $63 at $62.85. Ouch. Hmm. I wonder if that quote was correct, as the price is now back down to $62.10.

Posted: 9:01 am

Microcap ETFs

Looks like a few ETFs tracking microcap stock indices are on the way.

Posted: 8:09 am

July Job Numbers

The government’s July jobs report is out, and shows a gain in non-farm payrolls of 207,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remains at 5.0%, and the average hourly earnings were up 0.4%.

Of course, we know that much of these numbers are contrived, but they’re all the market has to go on, so they do make a difference. The increase in jobs and earnings has the bond market even more convinced that interest rates are going to continue higher, and they’ve sent bond yields higher this morning: the 5-year to 4.20% and the 10-year to 4.37%.

Oil prices moved back above $62 overnight, currently at $62.11.

Update: Here is another wrap on the jobs numbers. Reuters blames the high oil prices on refinery problems.

Posted: 7:44 am