On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

11/13/2005

No News is Good News

Bill Fleckenstein says this week that a “no-news period” and seasonal optimism are the best hopes the bulls have for a year-end rally.

Posted: 10:03 pm

What Did I Say?

Aug. Oil chart Back in August, BMB presented this chart of oil prices and said: “Oil has plenty of room to pull back, and get a lot of people pretty excited, without even putting much of a dent in this bull run.”

Remember, back then we had oil spiking to $67, even before Katrina hit at the end of August.
Nov. Oil chart Fast forward to today. Oil has pulled back, right to the high 50s, and everyone is pretty excited about it. As a matter of fact, I would imagine most drivers have forgotten about the high gasoline prices of September and have settled back into their normal routine.

So let’s take another look at the chart. The high 50s is still an area of support, the 200-day/40-week moving average sits at 57.90, and the uptrend line rests in the same area. This puts oil prices at a rather critical juncture. If they were to fall much further, then maybe the whole picture of oil price movement would be changed. But since the fundamentals of the oil situation haven’t changed from the pre-hurricane days, I’d consider it more likely that the pullback in oil prices will stall somewhere in this region, and the upside pressure will return. Probably with the first good cold snap.

 

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Posted: 11:05 am

What’s Hot, What’s Not

Items of note on the latest industry moves:

  • Transportation stocks are where it’s at. For now.
  • Energy stocks are not where it’s at. For now. If this market holds true to form, the energies will be the next group to make a big surge higher. It’s just a matter of when.
  • The financial gains have been a combo of banks and brokers.

 

Best Performing Industries
Last Week Last 4 Weeks Last 8 Weeks
Airlines +8.0% Airlines +16.1% Airlines +23.5%
Transportation +5.3% Transportation +14.6% Transportation +13.8%
Gold & Silver +5.2% Steel +13.7% Broker/Dealers +9.2%
REITs +4.0% Broker/Dealers +13.5% Disk Drives +9.1%
Banks +3.8% Banks +8.8% Internet +4.5%

 

 

Worst Performing Industries
Last Week Last 4 Weeks Last 8 Weeks
Natural Gas 4.8% Natural Gas -4.9% Natural Gas -9.9%
Oil Services -4.2% Oil -1.2% Oil -9.5%
Oil -4.0% Drugs -1.2% Housing -8.9%
Natural Resources -3.4% Hospitals -1.2% Utilities -8.7%
Housing -1.7% Defense -1.2% Natural Resources -7.4%
Posted: 10:27 am