On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

11/18/2005

Time Travel

ADSK chart …compliments of Autodesk. Up until last night, ADSK was one of the stronger names in the market. But a disappointing forecast sent shareholders back in time by about 3 months.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Posted: 5:37 pm

Where Is Everybody?

One of the things that bothers me about this market is the fact that there seems to be fewer “strong” stocks helping to keep the indices up. Here we see a 2-year chart of the Nasdaq, and behind it, in orange, is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day moving averages.

 

 

You can see that the peaks in the charts match up pretty well, and even the lines track pretty closely — until now. Near the Nasdaq high in January of ‘04, the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day MA peaked around 78 percent. In December of ‘04, that percentage peaked at about 72 percent. Off the April ‘05 lows, the number of ’strong’ stocks accelerated quickly, and by July, the figure reached above 71 percent near the Nasdaq top. Now we find ourselves at the same or even higher levels in the Nasdaq Composite, and the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average has come off the lows of 30 percent in October, but has only reached just above 50 percent as of the past couple of days. Either that number of stocks is going to have to increase, and possibly push the Nasdaq even higher, or this rally isn’t going to go much farther than the others have. As of right now, the topline number may look good, but there are fewer stocks carrying the day.

 

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Posted: 5:27 pm

Market Wrap

The market seemed like it was all over the place today, first hot, then cold, then hot again, then cold again, but managed to finish up on the “warm” side. Maybe that’s what happens on options expiration. The Dow Industrials gained 46 points (+0.4%) to 10766, the S&P 500 added 5 points (+0.4%) to 1248 and the Nasdaq was higher by 7 points (+0.3%) t0 2227. The Russell 2000 did a little better than the big boys, adding 5 points (+0.8%) to 672. The Dow Transport hit another new high by gaining 1.4%, but the Utilities fell 0.3%. Bonds pulled back from their recent rally, sending yields higher and also steepening the curve back up a bit: the 2-year sits at 4.39%, the 5-year at 4.43% and the 10-year at 4.50%.

Market internals also bounced around today, but ended up on the positive side, accompanied by good volume. Advances/declines on both exchanges were about 11 to 8, with up/down volume at better than 2 to 1 on the NYSE and 3 to 2 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 186/132 on the NYSE and 173/50 on the Nasdaq.

Looking at the industry groups, there weren’t too many big movers. Winners were semiconductors (+2.5% - helped by a 13% gain in MRVL), biotechs (+1.1%), telecom (+1.1%) and transports (+0.9%). Losers were software (-1.3%) and airlines (-1.0%).

The pricing on crude oil might get a bit confused over the weekend, as the front-month contract moves from December to January. The day’s action on the December contract closed at $56.14/barrel, but trading on the January contract is already at $57.21. That’s a pretty large difference, so be aware of that when looking at the “price” of oil. The dollar index barely moved, at 91.89, and gold took a bit of a rest, back to $485/ounce.

BMB Note: Another day of good action. I’m not sure what keeps it going, but it’s gone well for about a month now. The question remains: can it continue? We’ve have a number of these rallies over the past couple of years, and none of them have lasted. Trading range.

Posted: 3:21 pm

Early Take

The market surged out of the gate this morning, and promptly ran out of gas. The major indices have now pulled back to just above the flat line. Leading the upside at this point are semiconductors (boosted by a 10% gain in MRVL), biotechs and paper stocks, while airlines and gold & silver stocks are giving up ground.

Bonds are pulling back, pushing yields higher. Crude oil prices have dipped below the $56 mark, and natural gas has fallen well back below $12.

Posted: 10:22 am