On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

1/10/2006

Market Wrap

The market got off to a lousy start today, but managed to work its way back throughout the day, and finish with the major indices all near the UNCH line. The Dow 30 Industrials lost only a third of a point, finishing at 11012. The S&P 500 lost about a half-point to close at 1290, and the Nasdaq gained a point-and-a-half to 2320. The small-cap Russell 2000 did better than the big boys, gaining nearly 5 points (+0.7%) to 711. The Dow Transports fell 0.5% and the Utilities were higher by 0.1%. Bonds had a tough day, with yields moving higher across the board: 6-month at 4.41%, 2-year at 4.39%, 5-year at 4.36% and the 10-year at 4.43%.

Market internals were horrible at the start, but looked pretty fair by the closing bell, with volume very little changed from yesterday. Advance/declines were about 5 to 4 on each exchange, with up/down volume just below flat on the NYSE and just above flat on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows remain strong, at 257/18 on the NYSE and 179/27 on the Nasdaq.

While there was little movement in the major indices, some groups did make moves. On the winning side were oil services (+2.1%), disk drives (+1.9%), computer hardware (+1.3%, led by a 6% move in AAPL), housing stocks (+1.2%), paper stocks (+1.0%), networking (+1.0) and oil stocks (+1.0%). Losers were led by hospitals (-2.6%) and airlines (-1.3%).

Energy prices remained pretty steady. Oil moved higher early, but settled back down near $63.35/barrel, with gasoline at $1.74/gallon and natural gas at $9.36/mBTU. The dollar was quiet, with the dollar index falling 0.1% to 89.34. The spot price of gold fell back to $543/ounce.

BMB Note: Not much to report. The market recovered nicely after its opening stumble. In all honesty, I’d like to see a few things pull back a little here in order to provide better entry points. And the market, even if it’s going to go higher, isn’t going to go up every single day. Nothing to really worry about as yet. If / when a pullback comes, it will be interesting to see if the indices (S&P, Nasdaq) can hold their breakout points and not fall back into the December trading range. Rallies started from points of bullish sentiment like we were seeing in December (low VIX readings, low put/call ratios) don’t necessarily have far to go, but I’ll take higher prices as long as the market is willing to hand them out. But I have trouble forgetting that just a week ago things looked like they were on the verge of breaking lower.

Posted: 3:25 pm

Iran Shakes Oil Market

From MarketWatch.com:

Crude-oil futures rose early Tuesday to trade back over $64 a barrel, as traders reacted nervously to news that Iran has removed international seals on its nuclear facilities and prepared to resume research.

There was further support in comments from a Chinese official that China may buy oil to build a strategic reserve…

“When the news hit the wire, the market immediately began to rally,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst and vice president of Alaron Trading in Chicago.

Those who have been hoping for a return to $40 oil may have to wait a while longer. In BMB’s opinion, they’re going to have to wait a lot longer. I think the only way we’ll see $40 anytime soon is if there were some sort of worldwide recession that slashed demand. And of course, that would bring with it a whole new set of problems.

Last, but most certainly not least, is another important story concerning Iran that is making very few headlines. In March, Iran will open its own oil market, where crude will be traded in Euros rather than dollars. That development is almost certain to have a negative impact on the US Dollar.

Posted: 9:33 am

Early Take

A bit of a rough start this morning, with weak earnings from Alcoa hurting the Dow. The major indices all started lower on terrible advance/decline figures, but things have improved slightly from the open. Leading the few winners are the oil services, with many of those stocks hitting new highs this morning. On the down side, metals are being hurt after a profit warning from Phelps Dodge (PD). Groups losing ground include hospitals, steel stocks, precious metals and airlines.

Bonds are lower, pushing yields up. Oil prices are pushing back up near $64. The dollar is steady while gold has dropped back to the $544 mark.

Posted: 8:55 am