Well, that was a good day - if you like bizarre, choppy action, that is. Stocks were a little all over the place today. The Dow hung on for a gain of 43 points (+0.4%) to 11243, but the S&P managed only a 2 point gain (+0.1%) to 1280. The Nasdaq was the best of the three, picking up 14 points (+0.7%) to 2092. The Russell 2000 added 8 points (+1.1%) to 704 - but the NYSE composite and the S&P 100 were flat. The Dow Transports finally put in an up day, gaining 2.6% while the Utilities fell 0.7%. Bonds were down, then up and finished near flat, moving yields only a little: 6-month 5.18%, 2-year 4.98%, 5-year 4.90%, 10-year 4.96% and 30-year 5.04%.
Market internals were positive, and volume picked up again, but again only slightly on the Nasdaq. Advances led declines by 11 to 8 on both exchanges. Up/down volume was just better than flat on the NYSE but 3 to 2 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 117/59 on the NYSE and 89/119 on the Nasdaq.
The groups were split, a few more green than red. Leading the winners were the airlines (+3.6%), housing stocks (+3.2%), transportation (+3.0%), retailers (+2.2%), paper stocks (+2.0%), semiconductors (+1.5%), brokers (+1.4%), and internets (+1.1%). On the down side, we find gold and silver stocks (-1.9%), oil services (-1.7%) and defense stocks (-1.1%).
Energy prices pulled back today as some of the storm fears lessened: crude oil slipped to $75.46/barrel, gasoline to $2.29/gallon and natural gas to $7.29/mmBTU. The dollar index bounced around all day and ended up just below where it started, at 85.04. Gold slid 6 bucks to $645/ounce and silver lost 8 cents to $12.03/ounce.
BMB Note: What to make of today? Looked like a big mess to me. The beaten down transports, homebuilders and semis did alright, and some of the retailers got a bump out of the SSS numbers, but it really amounted to only a slightly positive day. It was the Dow’s turn to poke just above recent highs by a few points, but we got no movement in the NYSE and OEX at all. A/D lines were ok, but the group action was split up.
Not a lot to go on. I still think this market is just churning around waiting for Tuesday’s Fed meeting. I think there are a lot of folks that are just counting on a big rally if the Fed doesn’t raise rates, and they’re poised for that event. And I don’t doubt that we’ll see a big move if the Fed stands pat - finally the last of the countless “Fed is done” rallies. My question is: how long does it last? A few weeks? A few days? A few hours? Or maybe only a few minutes?
And if the Fed does raise rates - which I do NOT expect them to do - the markets will crumble once again.
Then again, I could be totally wrong about everything.
Update: Oh yeah!! How could I forget?? Tomorrow morning is the big jobs report. You know the one that keeps coming in well below Larry Kudlow’s expectations. Anyway, that one could be a market mover, as it’s the last big number to be reported before Fed Fun day next week.