On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

8/13/2006

Needing Incentive

Sounds like developers are having to work pretty hard to sell their condos in San Diego these days:

Developer Maisel Presley is selling condos online by dropping the price by $1,000 a day until a unit sells. A new development in upscale La Jolla is dangling zero money down programs to lure buyers.

On a recent Sunday afternoon, a prime time for condo shoppers, two real estate agents sat alone in the Atria sales office. Outside, bright green sandwich boards peppered the sidewalk and a woman twirled a large arrow to grab the attention of passing drivers.

About half the 150 units have sold since developers converted the building from rental apartments to condos last year, said Ed Easley, president of Crown Pacific Properties, which manages the building.

“We’re in a market that requires incentives, and just about everybody has got some sort of a program for their buyers,” he said.

According to Doug Kass’ personal experience, the sellers in East Hampton are going to have to come up with some incentive as well:

When I left East Hampton for southern Florida (my winter residence) last October (which, coincidentally, was the statistical peak in housing), there were no homes for sale on my block (which consists of about 12 homes). However, upon returning to Long Island in late May 2006, four of the existing 12 houses had been demolished and replaced with new homes for sale (I would estimate, on average, each home was about 7,000 square feet).

All four homes have been for sale since May (by speculators/developers) with no bids. Moreover, three other existing homes on my block have been put on the market this summer. No bids there either.

Real estage agents across the country routinely have Sunday open houses, and East Hampton is no exception. Those open houses on my street have come and gone; there has been no traffic.

And Doug sees things getting worse before they get better:

…the statistical peak in housing (measured by new-home sales) was October 2005, only nine months ago (and with a unit drop in new-home sales since the peak of less than 20%). By contrast, the average postwar cyclical downturn for housing has been between 26 to 52 months, and in units, has averaged a 51% drop.

Posted: 4:40 pm

What’s Hot, What’s Not

Items of note on the latest industry moves:

  • Not a great week, with only two groups up more than a percent.
  • Transportation stocks all over the ‘worst’ list, and the airlines led the way down this week.
  • Housing stocks took a hit this week after their run up - for whatever reason - of the past few weeks.
  • Defense stocks ($DFX) and disk drives ($DDX) are threatening to move to new lows.
  • The banks ($BKX), which had been doing pretty well, took a sharp dive this week.
  • Biotechs ($BTK) in danger of breaking down out of a three-month range.
  • For a more detailed breakdown of group movement over various time periods, try Prophet.net’s Industry Rankings page.

 

Best Performing Industries
Last Week Last 4 Weeks Last 8 Weeks
Paper ($DJUSPP) +1.4% Telecoms ($XTC) +8.0% Oil ($XOI) +14.1%
Hospitals ($RXH) +1.4% Software ($GSO) +6.2% Gold & Silver ($XAU) +11.1%
Internet ($IIX) +0.9% Paper +5.1% Natural Gas +10.3%
Computer Tech ($XCI) +0.5% Brokers ($XBD) +5.1% Natural Resources ($GSR) +8.0%
Oil ($XOI) +0.3% Hospitals +4.8% Paper +6.2%

 

 

Worst Performing Industries
Last Week Last 4 Weeks Last 8 Weeks
Airlines ($XAL) -10.3% Transportation -11.1% Networking ($NWX) -13.4%
Transportation ($TRANQ) -6.5% Airlines -8.5% Transportation -10.9%
Housing ($HGX) -6.1% Steel -6.6% Disk Drives ($DDX) -10.9%
Steel ($DJUSST) -4.5% Oil Services ($OSX) -5.5% Semiconductors ($SOX) -10.6%
Brokers -3.8% HMOs ($HMO) -4.2% Airlines -9.9%
Posted: 12:15 pm