On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

5/17/2008

Let It Be

An editorial from the OC Register:

President Bush has threatened to veto a mortgage crisis “relief” bill that the House passed Thursday, 266-155, in the face of that threat. If the Senate doesn’t change the bill substantially – and perhaps even if it does – he should carry through on the threat.

Presidents in the last year of a second term typically have little influence, and this president is less popular than most presidents in similar situations. The veto is one of the few ways President Bush can demonstrate continuing relevance. He should veto this bill because it is a terrible approach to the mortgage crisis that will delay necessary adjustments and undermine orderly business.

The House bill as passed would create a $300 billion mortgage-insurance fund, give some first-time homebuyers a $7,500 tax credit, and send $15 billion to local governments to buy and fix abandoned homes.

But this approach would take money from the vast majority of homeowners (in their role as taxpayers) who have not gone into default to aid a small minority who have gotten into trouble. Thus it would provide an ongoing incentive for irresponsible behavior.

It has become fashionable to blame the mortgage crisis on “predatory” lenders who have aggressively pushed bigger mortgages than people can afford to pay onto hapless homebuyers. Insofar as some lending was fraudulent, appropriate legal remedies are readily available. It should be noted, however, that the government itself pressured lenders to make mortgage money available to people with marginal credit.

It has also been the case, however, that some borrowers got in over their heads or misrepresented their financial situation to get loans. That is unfortunate, but we all make mistakes. In a free and just society we take responsibility for our mistakes, using them to learn and mature, rather than demanding that somebody bail us out.

The Constitution prohibits states from passing any “Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts” for the important reason that honoring contracts is essential to social stability and a functioning market economy. If Congress simply swoops in and changes the terms of contracts, the result will be less-stable markets and an increasing reluctance to extend credit to anyone but gold-plated borrowers.

A more modest bill, that involves less money or a tighter definition of eligible recipients so as to rule out speculators, would still have these destabilizing side effects, if to a lesser degree. So even if Congress revamps a mortgage “relief” bill President Bush should still veto it.

It is hard for politicians, but the best thing the government can do in this instance is to get out of the way and allow the markets to correct themselves, which will happen more quickly if the government doesn’t meddle.

Posted: 2:00 pm

Shocked

I’m shocked. Absolutely shocked, I tell you.

From the Market Ticker:

Me thinks you doth protest too much…..

“The European Central Bank on Thursday voiced its ‘high concern’ at growing evidence that banks are exploiting its efforts to unblock the frozen funding markets by using its liquidity scheme to offload more risky assets than it envisaged.”

“Investment bankers who work in securitisation say that their main business is structuring bonds that are eligible for ECB liquidity operations. Some analysts have concerns about whether the bonds being created will ever be saleable if markets recover.”

What in the Sam Hell did you think was going to happen?

Bernanke, by the way, did the same thing you know.

Both The Fed and the ECB set up these “liquidity conduits” to take collateral that nobody else will loan against and provide “liquidity.”

Well, now suddenly there’s a problem with swapping that garbage for perfectly-good treasury bonds?

Who’d a thunk that when you advertise that you’ll take used toilet paper and treat it like its “money good” that you will get, indeed, used toilet paper?

And if its toilet paper (that is, nobody else will buy it for any amount of money) then is it really an “asset” or is it, in fact, a zero that someone is hiding? What sort of capital position do you think these banks might have if they were forced to value these things at what they could get for them in the open market?

Hell, there is evidence that Lehman has put together synthetics (e.g. CLOs, etc) especially for presentation to these facilities in the United States. That is, they took securities and created a synthetic specifically for the purpose of swapping it for treasuries!

What is with the ECB and Bernanke?

I am absolutely stunned that anyone would expect anything different out of these bankers.

You put together a system that is just screaming “scam me!” and then you complain when that is exactly what happens?

Three, four, five, eight years of these very same bankers claiming that “liar loans” are “prime paper” wasn’t enough evidence that folks in the banking system would do the very same thing to the central banks, quite confident that in the end the taxpayers would get the bill?

Mish has a few more comments on the subject:

Pawned Garbage Expands

The garbage being pawned off on the ECB is expanding: Spanish, Dutch, and UK housing, but more amazingly, securitisation of Australian motor loans. Remember the original premise behind the Swap-O-Ramas?

The Swap-O-Rama was supposed to increase bank to bank lending. Instead, the Fed and the ECB have become veritable garbage dumps. This was easily predictable.

First Law Of Swap-O-Rama

Let’s apply Parkinson’s Law to the Fed’s and ECB’s Swap-O-Ramas. Here goes: The garbage dump will expand in direct relation to the willingness of the dump to accept garbage.

Second Law Of Swap-O-Rama

Over time, the dump will consist of increasingly toxic waste. That toxic waste will eventually have to be cleared out. If those dumping the toxic waste cannot afford the cleanup, taxpayers will have to foot the bill.

No Exit Strategy In Place

The above laws should be intuitively obvious. However, the ECB seems to have just figured it out. The Fed either has not figured it out, or in typical fashion will not care until the mess blows sky high.

Posted: 11:55 am

Weekend Sector Scan

Lotsa noise to sift through, but in the end, the six-month sector picture looks the same.

Energy is reaching for the moon, and the Materials are trying to keep up:

 

 

Financials and Health Care are still dragging:

 

 

And the rest are still somewhere in between:

 

 

Here are the numbers as the red disappears from the table:

 

Sector Symbol 8 Week % Chg. 4 Week % Chg. 1 Week % Chg. YTD % Chg.
Energy XLE +25.6 +6.4 +4.9 +12.1
Basic Materials XLB +19.9 +3.8 +5.7 +10.1
Technology XLK +13.3 +6.5 +3.6 -4.8
Utilities XLU +8.9 +0.2 +1.8 -3.7
Industrials XLI +7.2 +2.5 +2.7 +0.3
Consumer Discretionary XLY +7.0 +4.3 +3.9 +2.3
Consumer Staples XLP +3.1 +1.9 +2.3 -1.1
Health Care XLV +2.0 +0.2 +0.7 -10.2
Financials XLF +0.3 -0.3 +1.5 -8.8

 

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Posted: 8:53 am