On Break

11/16/2008

BMB On Break

It’s time again for a little BMB R&R, especially with the market behaving as bizarrely as it’s been. Maybe if we stop watching it start to behave a little better…

Posting will be very light and variable over the course of this week, but we’ll put up an open thread each market day for our readers to comment on the day’s market activity or to post any interesting links they might run across.

Check the space below for whatever the latest might be during this ‘off’ time, and please visit the various sites in the ‘Links’ and ‘Regular Stops’ for up-to-date market news and analysis.

BMB will be back in full swing by next weekend.

Posted: 1:00 pm

5/18/2008

Fundamentally Speaking

Some common sense talk from Gary at The Smart Money Tracker:

As I write this gold is up another $14 and oil is up $3. Many technicians will of course tell us the fundamentals don’t matter. Personally I pay attention to both the fundamentals and the charts. In the short term fundamentals aren’t going to influence day to day movements. The fundamentals however over the longer term are going to move the market in the direction it has to go. Case in point the commodity bull market since 2001. Fundamentals are more like a rising tide. You can swim against it for a while but you can’t prevent it from coming in.

My theory is that this rally is nothing more than a blizzard of paper being created by the Fed to keep the markets levitated until the elections, which seems to be working BTW.

Unfortunately this is also preventing over stretched commodity markets from correcting.

I’m watching the dollar closely now. We are in the window of time when we could and probably should see the second counter trend rally in the dollar bear market. However if the Fed is creating too much liquidity for this to happen then the risk of the dollar rally failing is high. The fundamentals will eventually take the market were it has to go regardless of what the charts say.

Fundamentally, if there are just too many dollars floating around then the rally is doomed to failure. If this does unfold I hate to think where commodity prices are going.

Expect to see more media hype about evil oil companies and hedge fund speculation. I also expect to see margin requirements increased in the futures markets and perhaps we will see another round of index reweightings similar to the Goldman gasoline reweighting in 06 (see here and here - BMB).

I expect the powers that be will try any and everything to abort the stagflation outcome of the 70’s from repeating. Heck they already measure inflation by removing everything that’s inflating. It’s a good start unfortunately it doesn’t jive with reality.

Following down the same monetary inflation path as the 70’s is going to ultimately lead to the same outcome as before no matter what new tricks and gimmicks the Fed tries.

Posted: 4:51 pm

Anecdotal Evidence

From Tim Wood’s Friday market wrap:

Another item that is contributing to the toxic American economy is rising commodity prices and the stagnate business environment that rising commodity prices have caused. Let me give you a few examples. This past week I went to my local lube and car wash. The manager and I were talking while I was waiting on my vehicle to be washed. He told me that a year ago they would do anywhere between 80 and 100 oil changes in a typical day. But with the rising fuel prices, business has dropped to an average of somewhere between 50 and 60. As for car washes, he said that they were doing upwards of 400 a day. At present, business has dropped to between 60 and 100 per day.

Another friend of mine is a boat dealer and sells bay boats and pontoon boats. This time last year if you went by his store, you could hardly talk to him because he was so busy. I remember needing something and literally not being able to get to him. He told me this week that June is his peak month and it was absolutely dead at his store. He said that he counts on the summer sales to help carry him through the winter season. He is now worried about making it through the summer. There was also another local business owner present and he too is also now feeling the exact same pain.

In yet another example, I needed a trailer ball so I stopped in at a truck accessory store. It was also dead there and I quizzed the owner. He too was telling me how slow it had gotten. He said that recently he had 13 employees between all of his sales and installation people. He is now down to one sale person, a secretary, one installer and himself. He said that it is now costing him to keep the doors open. He had a beautiful black 4-door F-250. He said that it cost $170 to fill it up and he had it parked in the shop and is no longer driving it.

Here’s another one. I went to the local mall with my wife this week. She knows the lady that runs one of the shops in the mall. This lady is looking for a job because sales are so bad that the company is not going to renew its lease this summer and will be closing the doors.

In yet another example, I was talking to a lady at the local gym. Yes, I talk with everyone trying to get a feel for things. Anyway, she was telling me that they are now seeing gym memberships declining.

I also know people at one of the local giant home improvement stores. Sales are down and I am being told that they are not refilling positions in an effort to cut overhead. This slow down is not just affecting the small business owner. It is hitting everyone.

The so called “stimulus package” was like handing a band aid to a Ted Bundy victim. Rising commodity prices are now squashing the economy.

Just in case you’re wondering, Tim lives on the Gulf coast in Alabama.

Posted: 4:00 pm

ChartWatchers Newsletter

The latest issue of the ChartWatchers newsletter from StockCharts.com is available. Topics this time around include the performance of the “commodity countries”, the current market’s bullish-but-overbought condition, the lagging financials and health care, and a few warning signs that this latest run could be nearing a top.

Posted: 2:45 pm

What’s Hot, What’s Not

Notes on the latest moves in the industry groups:

 

Best Performing Industries
Last Week Last 4 Weeks Last 8 Weeks
Metals & Mining (XME) +7.3% Networking ($NWX) +12.3% Metals & Mining +34.0%
Housing ($HGX) +6.8% Semiconductors ($SOX) +11.8% Oil Services ($OSX) +33.9%
Networking +6.7% Steel ($DJUSST) +11.3% Steel +30.5%
Paper ($DJUSPP) +6.6% Telecom ($XTC) +10.6% Natural Gas ($XNG) +28.0%
Steel +6.5% Metals & Mining +9.3% Semiconductors +24.1%

 

 

Worst Performing Industries
Last Week Last 4 Weeks Last 8 Weeks
Banks ($BKX) -0.4% Airlines ($XAL) -6.7% Airlines -14.5%
HMOs ($HMO) +0.2% Paper -3.5% Banks -6.0%
Biotech ($BTK) +0.7% Insurance ($INSR) -2.2% Insurance -0.7%
Health Care ($HCX) +0.7% Biotech -1.3% Health Care +0.8%
Hospitals ($RXH) +1.1% Banks -1.1% Drugs ($DRG) +1.1%
Posted: 2:31 pm