Bill Fleckenstein says that Big Ben doesn’t get it. I’m not so sure that’s the case - I think ol’ Ben might be starting to ‘get it’, meaning that he’s starting to realize there isn’t a heckuva lot more he can do.
“Helicopter” Ben Bernanke made a big splash last week when speaking before the Boston Fed. He opined that the risk of a “substantial slowdown” had diminished, and he talked tough about controlling inflation and inflation expectations. I suspect he will regret his comments.
After all, they were voiced by the same Federal Reserve chairman who was remarkably sanguine last summer and fall as the mortgage debacle was building a head of steam.
When it comes to the Fed and interest rates, Fleck is on the same page as BMB:
I believe the chance of Bernanke raising interest rates is essentially zero. I think the Fed’s next move will be to ease rates, though I don’t know if that will be three months or six months from now.
What I do know is that Bernanke is not really serious about containing inflation, as is obvious by how far the Fed has let it climb. He cares only about avoiding a downturn. So, when it looks like push has come to shove, Bernanke will ease again.
Push is coming to shove, and there’s nothing he can do to stop that.
David Merkel thinks that maybe even the Fed is starting to realize that the Fed is ’stuck’ (via The Big Picture):
When I read this summary of a speech by Donald Kohn, I concluded a few things:
- The Fed is stuck.
- Because the Fed is stuck, it will let things drift for a while.
- A certain amount of idealism is waning inside the Fed, with a creeping suspicion that they aren’t wizards, but only sorcerer’s apprentices.