The Next Major Event
From Frank Barbera tonight at Financial Sense:
While we would love to try and see the ‘silver lining’ in today’s economy, at the moment, it is very hard to see which sectors of the economy are going to lead the US out of the current economic malaise. A close examination of any number of economic reports shows that without the help of government spending, most of the data ex-Uncle Sam is still scraping along the bottom or in decline. While it is true that in the past employment has been a lagging indicator, it is also true that going forward it is hard to see where new employment will come from on a scale needed to turn a global contraction back into global growth. In addition, President Obama’s “Cap and Trade” Bill looms as a giant new energy tax, something that is hard to see will help struggling businesses at the current time.
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The question for the US now becomes — if growth does not return, will foreign capital continue to flow toward the US markets, or will foreign capital slow its pace of investment? Without even contemplating what would happen if capital starts to withdraw for US markets, even a mere slowing in the flow of foreign capital could easily send US interest rates sharply higher, and if the US economy can not turn the corner now with record low rates, then what will happen once the entire yield curve begins to shift upward across the maturity spectrum? In my view, a funding crisis could well be the next major event, characterized by a weakening Dollar and surging US interest rates, forcing Uncle Sam to issue even more debt as the rate of interest on debt rolling over continues to soar. By comparison to the recent crisis seen in 2008, a funding crisis that questions the quality of U.S. government debt will make everything that came before it look like child’s play with huge additional downside risks to both Real Estate and Equity markets. For now, the sun is still shining on the equity markets, but at these levels the equity markets are fully priced for a reasonable recovery, and if the months ahead show more dismal news and an economic relapse, then the equity markets could come under fire all over again. For now, conservative investors should be in a defensive posture and should only be looking to perhaps trade into the market on a set of major oversold conditions, conditions which at the present time have yet to be seen.








