BLS B.S.
I know you probably get tired of BMB’s griping about how lousy government numbers are. But let’s face it: they ARE lousy. And if the public ever gets tired of being fed garbage, maybe some changes will eventually be made - but I won’t be holding my breath…
The Big Picture on this morning’s NFP report:
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JUNE 2008
BLS:
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in June (-62,000), while the unemployment rate held at 5.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and employment services, while health care and mining added jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.
NFP payrolls shrank for the sixth consecutive month.
The big news was the revisions — down another 52,000 for April and May. When we get these revisions next month for June, don’t be surprised if we see a major change.
Also, note the Unemployment Claims jumped to 404k . . .
And now, the Birth Death Adjustment:
June 2008 was 177k versus June 2007 155k
Construction Gains +29k
Professional & Business Services +22k
Leisure and Hospitality +86kThe last is my favorite: Given the massive decrease in travel, an 86k gain in this sector is very hard to believe…
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Not to disagree with any of the points, I will say that I have seen no decrease in travel from anyone that I know. I follow a few forums, generally reading groups, which include people from Europe, Australia, US, Canada–basically anyone that can speak English and reads a lot. It covers a lot of age groups. Vacations get discussed often and no one on those boards seems to be cutting back on vacation. Neighbors, not cutting back. Family members, immediate and extended, not cutting back.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot of complaining about the price of gas and hotels. There is a steady litany of that and the “threat” of cutting back–ie “next year…”
There also seems to be cutting back in other areas; some of it involves changing jobs or moving to a place that results in a cheaper cost of living. But at this point, the changes appear to be minor.
Comment by Maria — 7/3/2008 @ 10:18 am