11/19/2009

Chart Chatter

RUT chart Large-cap indices are still holding up, but the Russell got bumped hard off the 50-day today.
IRX chart This chart of the 3-month T-bill yield is worth another look after today’s action. Something is not right with this picture.

 

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Posted: 3:49 pm

11 Comments »

  1. The markets took a tumble but it’s not done on the upside if the dollar is about to do what I think it’s about to do. We got a B nearly finished then comes C of equal distance to A. BTW, I have something posted about extended hours trading called SPY’s hidden gems – http://ceotrader.blogspot.com
    Good stuff. Keep up the good work Randy.

    Comment by Mark — 11/19/2009 @ 4:41 pm

  2. eSignal has IRX closing at .005 but it is the same story. Just what is going on? Lowest since they paid for the privilege to loan the gubment money during the panic last year

    Comment by Michael Kahn — 11/19/2009 @ 5:09 pm

  3. You know Michael, I’m just not sure what it’s all about. But it certainly doesn’t look ‘normal’ by any stretch. ZH said there was some talk of ‘limited supply’, but limited or not, that means significant demand for T-bills, and this looks a little on the extreme side.

    And thanks for stopping by BMB. Great to see you here!

    (StockCharts’ IRX yield values are always x10. In other words, a close of .05 is really equal to a yield of .005%, so it’s probably the same as eSignal’s. I’m not sure what the reason for that is, but some sites do yields that way.)

    Comment by BMB — 11/19/2009 @ 5:20 pm

  4. Grab something solid.

    More on the T-Bills from Jesse, with Bloomberg’s story on the subject.

    Jesse says, “Too many dollars chasing too few opportunities because of mispriced risk, so they are piling into short Term Treasuries again. Grab something solid and hold on tight. Could be rough seas ahead.”

    Comment by BMB — 11/19/2009 @ 6:59 pm

  5. What about anticipation that the FDIC is really insolvent and the fear of what Main Street would do at the banks still left on the “official news?”

    Comment by Henry — 11/19/2009 @ 11:32 pm

  6. The FDIC is in my building and I had one of my colleagues ask a woman who works for them that he met on the train about that. The government will just print more money for them to hand out to the banks. It probably won’t look good, and the markets won’t react well, but its not like the Fed cares about image at this point. After all, agendas are agendas.

    That’s why I keep my money in credit unions. The kind using a different entity to back their accounts than the FDIC.

    Comment by Andrew — 11/20/2009 @ 7:50 am

  7. I think most that have been paying attention already know they are, for the most part, insolvent. But like Andrew says, they’ll just start quietly drawing on their credit line to the Treasury, and just keep rollin’ along as though everything’s fine. What other options do they have?

    Comment by BMB — 11/20/2009 @ 8:36 am

  8. SJM benefits from the coffee moves we’ve seen in the market.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JM-Smucker-2ndquarter-profit-apf-2539645052.html?x=0

    You know this reminds me that coffee made a lot of dramatic moves for Jesse Livermore back after the 1906 panic.

    Comment by Henry — 11/20/2009 @ 9:56 am

  9. Maybe I read it here, maybe I read in The Economist, but apparently the FDIC are requiring all banks to pay the full FDIC premiums through 2012 now. And prior they only charged the banks that weren’t well capitalized, which is why they were underfunded until the law changed in 2006 (almost like Congress saw it coming). So…that could be why some folks are warning of large bank failures coming soon to a US near you. Thank you glass-steagle repeal for screwing us all royally. May the law makers who pushed for it rot in …

    Comment by Andrew — 11/20/2009 @ 9:58 am

  10. Well, we know they didn’t collect much in the way of premiums at all for something like ten years. No wonder they’re out of money.

    Comment by BMB — 11/20/2009 @ 10:09 am

  11. More on the FDIC and its financing troubles.

    Comment by BMB — 11/20/2009 @ 5:40 pm

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