Chart Chatter
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Though the indices have bounced well up off the lows, those moving averages have yet to hint at a turn back up. |
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It’s hard to get too bullish with that 3-month yield dragging right along the zero mark. Pretty amazing stuff. |
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Gold has rallied strongly the last few days. GLD has seen the moving averages start to turn up, but they have yet to ‘cross over’ and put the shorter-term averages on top. |
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
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we have a 13% rally off the lows and we’re still only where we were last Wednesday – when everybody was worried whether 840 SP would hold as the low. Long way to go.
One thing I like is that all the talking heads I see on Bloomberg have been negative – don’t trust the rally, two-day wonder, etc etc. We are seeing differences though…
The undercut done over the last two days of the Oct lows were significant – needed to happen to take out stops at those lows. Dollar weakening a bit (with gold up massively) – that hasn’t happened for months. Bit of “hope” in the new administration (at least a change appears to be in the works), and Citi equity not wiped out in the bailout (constructive). We’re still so oversold that a 20% rally FROM HERE barely gets us to the 50-day MA…plus we’re in a good season of the year for rallies. All in all, maybe this one’s a bit different from the other recent “wonders”. Guess we will have to see.
Good luck all
-Greg
Comment by Greg Larsen — 11/24/2008 @ 3:39 pm
Deron Wagner mentioned this morning as well that the undercut of the old lows could be bullish.
Comment by BMB — 11/24/2008 @ 3:46 pm
Greg, what’s different is that this rally is occurring during a holiday week where perhaps all of the key players aren’t around.
As Gary Kaltbaum mentioned last night on his radio show, volume is petering out as prices rise. Let’s see where volume comes in. Without conviction, there is no sustainable rally.
Folks will get excited over the holiday and perhaps buy into the next high. Has happened before; and there is nothing to suggest that it couldn’t happen again.
Comment by Mike p — 11/26/2008 @ 1:06 pm