Market Wrap
Another roller coaster of a day, with stocks selling off at the open, running up, selling off again and then running up into the close.
What does it all mean? You got me.
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In the Treasuries, not a lot of movement, with yields just a bit lower across the board:
6-month: 0.35% 2-yr: 0.88% 5-yr: 1.60% 10-yr: 2.66% 30-yr: 3.18%.
Internals finished positive, with volume a bit lower on the NYSE and higher on the Nasdaq. Advances/declines were 2 to 1 on the NYSE and 3 to 2 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume 7 to 2 on the NYSE and 4 to 1 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 5/56 on the NYSE and 5/96 on the Nasdaq.
The groups were mostly positive, with only the commodity areas dragging. Leading the winners were the homebuilders (+8.5%), disk drives (+6.9%), semiconductors (+6.7%), retail (+6.3%), banks (+5.4%), REITs (+5.1%) and brokers (+4.9%). Gold/silver stocks (-4.7%), metals (-3.5%), oil services (-2.0%) and steel stocks (-1.8%) led the losers.
Energy prices were slightly lower, with crude down to $46.79/barrel, gasoline to $1.04/gallon, and natural gas to $6.36/mmBTU. The dollar index was slightly higher at 86.95. The PMs were mixed, with spot gold down a few bucks to $773/ounce, but silver up a few cents to $9.61ounce.
BMB Note: More messin’ around. I don’t know about you, but the picture doesn’t look much clearer to me than it did yesterday.
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Hey BMB,
Couple of thoughts. Volatility / large candles happen towards the end of major moves…that is one of the reasons I’m thinking this whole move since Oct 10 has been part of the bottoming process. Once we get into a nice trending market again, volatility will settle down, IMHO.
Another good sign: stocks moving UP on bad news. Yesterday, GE guided down, stock finished +11%. Today RIMM guided down, stock started off DOWN 8%, finished UP 4%, on heavy volume. That’s two big names. Also we had bad news today on ISM Services as well as ADP employment – mkt shrugged it off.
What does it all mean? That the bears are starting to lose control. My take…
-Greg
Comment by Greg Larsen — 12/3/2008 @ 3:39 pm
Greg your comment makes alot of sense. Friday will be the day where there should be some bad numbers with the employment report. I was reading that HSBC using their models were looking for -500,000 for the jobs number. If we get that number and the market does not tank I will agree with you. Here’s a link to that report http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=2220
Comment by John — 12/3/2008 @ 3:54 pm
John,
You are absolutely right. The jobs report will be the BIG TEST of this theory. So far, so good, and as long as big bad numbers like that are being whispered, the expectations of a horrible number may be getting baked into the cake. If we rally or at least go flat on a horrible jobs number, that speaks volumes. Should be an interesting day. Santa’s coming
- Greg
Comment by Greg Larsen — 12/3/2008 @ 4:06 pm
Greg – I agree that this sort of volatility normally comes at the end of a move, not in the middle. The problem is that I’ve been thinking that for nearly two months already.
Comment by BMB — 12/3/2008 @ 4:34 pm
BMB – Amen to that. Yet if you really look at the the thrashing around over the last two months, we’ve essentially gone sideways…NOT DOWN. That in itself is a change. It is a BIG BAD BEAR and thus it will take a BIG BOTTOM (i.e. in both time and price) to turn it. Like turning an aircraft carrier – needs a wide berth. Keep up the good work.
- Greg
Comment by Greg Larsen — 12/3/2008 @ 5:30 pm
I can’t argue. But I would have to add that, even if we are able to muster some sort of rally out of here, I wouldn’t be too convinced that the “big bad bear” would be over. I can see the possibility that this area is revisited once or twice – or even broken – before this bad boy is truly over. The 00-02 bear hit the low areas three times over a 9-month period before finally turning up for good. Well, ok, that didn’t last forever either…
That doesn’t mean we won’t see a few tradeable bear market rallies during that time, however. Maybe we’ll get one of those started here soon.
Comment by BMB — 12/3/2008 @ 5:41 pm
FYI – IBD called yesterday a ‘follow-through’ day. We’ll see if this one finally works.
Comment by BMB — 12/3/2008 @ 5:54 pm
We can’t possibly be at a bottom yet. The insolvency issues have not been dealt with yet.
Comment by EDN — 12/3/2008 @ 10:52 pm
I’ve often thought that where stocks are concerned, we may be near a bottom in PRICE, but not in TIME. In other words, a good chunk of the losses may well be in – not saying we don’t go lower yet, but possibly not a lot lower. But we still need to spend some time on damage repair.
And, I could be dead wrong.
Comment by BMB — 12/4/2008 @ 8:12 am